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Family Practice Advance Access originally published online on August 17, 2005
Family Practice 2006 23(1):40-45; doi:10.1093/fampra/cmi083
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© The Author (2005). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Long-term prognosis of acute otitis media in infancy: determinants of recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion

Roger AMJ Damoiseaux, Maroeska M Rovers, Frank AM Van Balen, Arno W Hoes and Ruut A de Melker

Julius Center of Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands

Correspondence to Maroeska M Rovers, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Stratenum 6.139, PO Box 85060, 3508 AB Utrecht, The Netherlands; Email: M.Rovers{at}umcutrecht.nl

Objectives. Children under 2 years of age with acute otitis media are known to have a relatively poor prognosis. The objective of this study was to assess whether known determinants for recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion after an episode of acute otitis media during childhood also apply to children under 2 years.

Methods. Study design: prospective study of 210 children under 2, with identification of potential prognostic determinants. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to evaluate which parameters independently contributed to the prediction of both outcome measures (recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion). A prognostic function was developed, and the area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) was used to estimate the predictive ability of the prognostic models. Population: children under 2 years of age with an episode of acute otitis media in family practice. Outcomes measured: recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion.

Results. For the outcome recurrent acute otitis media data from 210 children were used and winter season, male sex, passive smoking and persistent symptoms for more than 10 days at presentation were independent prognostic determinants. For the outcome persistent middle ear effusion data from 190 children were used and winter season, bilateral disease at entry, a sibling history of recurrent acute otitis media, and a previous episode of acute otitis media independently predicted the outcome. No sufficiently discriminatory prognostic model could be constructed for either outcome measure.

Conclusion. Prediction of recurrent acute otitis media or persistent middle ear effusion in individual young children remains poor.

Keywords. Children, otitis media, prognosis.


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N. Bezakova, R. A M J Damoiseaux, A. W Hoes, A. G M Schilder, and M. M Rovers
Recurrence up to 3.5 years after antibiotic treatment of acute otitis media in very young Dutch children: survey of trial participants
BMJ, June 30, 2009; 338(jun30_1): b2525 - b2525.
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